register: To remain in office, the despot has once again resorted to
threats, vote-buying and election fraud. And yet there are
opportunities for a fresh start in the southern African country. By
Marc Goergen
Actually, everything is like the last time six years ago. Zimbabwe
elects its President, and again, incumbent Robert Mugabe for election,
and again the now 84-year-old tried everything, to anticipate the
outcome.
With free corn are lured thousands to his rallies, the aging dictator
wasted fertilizer, cows, tractors, and increased as a surprise move
last massive salaries for soldiers, teachers and civil servants. The
Election Commission is staffed with willing followers, banned the
independent press, as well as Western analysts and journalists, the
constituencies are ruthless to the needs of the ruling party cut, it
is threatened, tortured, murdered, and to risk despite everything no
democratic accident, ordered one precaution than three million ballots
already more than necessary. The army leadership has said, meanwhile,
we salute them no other than President Robert Mugabe.
And yet there are indeed opportunities that Mugabe despite vote buying
and electoral fraud to win this time. For the 28th Years reign of the
former freedom fighter is the once-thriving Zimbabwe, the "Jewel of
Africa" as late Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere once called it,
on the edge. Mugabe expropriated since 2000, most white farmers left,
the economy is in freefall. 2007, it shrank by seven percent. An
estimated 80 percent are unemployed, electricity there is usually only
an hourly basis, the drinking water supply is partially collapsed,
register signs of famine relief organizations and the life expectancy
for women is 34 years with the lowest in the world.
The hyper-inflation of more than 100,000 percent make normal life
impossible. Sometimes the prices are increased several times per day.
Talking to people in Harare or Bulawayo invariably hears the same
complaints. How to pay the school fees of children? How to come to
work when there is no petrol and no driving or buses? How to pay for
the food? Anyway: How to find something to eat?
Mugabe since last fall in panic ordered the traders to halve their
prices, they are reluctant to replenish their stores again - even if
they could. Empty shelves everywhere in between people who wear
plastic bags full of worthless Zimbabwean dollars with him. In
January, the Central Bank, a 10-million-dollar bill put into
circulation. But for the chestnut-brown paper with a pretty dam sure
there is not even a loaf of bread.
Only remittances from abroad, many families still alive. A quarter of
all Zimbabweans, about three to four million live now outside the
country. Most in neighboring South Africa, without a steady job or
home, any time at risk of deportation. Sometimes churches are their
only protection. In the Johannesburg Central Methodist Church about
1000 people live on, sleep in corridors or on pews. In the air hangs a
pungent mix of sweat, urine and waste, it is coughed, cried
geschnäuzt, even rapes and murders investigated the huddled miserably
in the house of God Community home already.
Mugabe's power is waning
Poverty, inflation, an unprecedented exodus - all this shakes Mugabe's
power. But only since February this year in his former finance
minister Simba Makoni broke away from him to run as an independent for
president, it also threatens to collapse. For years, the now
58-year-old Mugabe, Makoni part of the system - today, he asserts, to
have tried before, to convince Mugabe by another policy. "But Mugabe
takes criticism in general was not," he said stern.de
Makoni poses as a reconciler. He wants to normalize relations with the
West. He also relies on contacts from his time as Secretary General of
the SADC regional economic community. A withdrawal of the land reform,
but he plans any more than he condemned the ruling Zanu-PF. "The
government is no shortage of good ideas, they were not implemented it
properly."
Simba Makoni is apparently dissatisfied by senior ruling party
supports - though so far hardly anyone dares from cover. Zimbabwe's
powerful Vice-President Joyce Mujuru and her husband, retired General
Solomon Mujuru, are attributed to the Makoni camp.
For the second opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai, Makoni,
however, remains just "old wine in new bottles". Tsvangirai was the
candidate of the "Movement for Democratic Change" (MDC) had begun in
the 2002 election against Mugabe and had officially reached 42
percent. After a correct choice, he would have won. Last year he was
arrested and beaten. The image of his maltreated head once again made
the world attention on Zimbabwe - and made him the hero of the
resistance. His leadership, however, is controversial. It has not been
able to capture a renegade faction of the MDC again. Their leader,
Arthur Mutambara, now supports Simba Makoni. Tsvangirai himself
refuses to cooperate with Makoni.
This keeps the split opposition so far. In addition, Tsvangirai and
Makoni fish at the same voters. While Mugabe can still count on
ordinary voters from the country, set both Tsvangirai and Makoni also
formed on the townspeople. The despot is just down for the count -
knocked out But not yet.
A second ballot is likely
What does all this mean? Probably no clear winner, but a second ballot
with Tsvangirai or Makoni on the one hand, Mugabe on the other.
Probably no major unrest, most recently in Kenya - even if Mugabe is
declared winner. Too many Zimbabweans have left the policy already
frustrated the back. And Zimbabwe's powerful neighbor South Africa
will likely remain silent even again. Meanwhile, President Thabo Mbeki
still refuses to criticize Mugabe openly. He is rather silent on
democracy. He has so far failed miserably.
Really sure but in this election is hardly anything, except:
Democratic, they will not
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